Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 8-7-2023

Thank you for being a reader of the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll be giving you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis once again along with a post Litecoin halving update. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on its fundamentals as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is still showing bullish sentiment based on the simple moving averages (SMA) and technical analysis. Several months ago the SPY got above 20% off of its bear market lows officially putting it in a bull market. As of now I’m still not a bull but more like a cautious bull. The regional banking crisis that I've been talking about for the past few months is still playing out in the background and we still don't know what to expect next. Over the past few weeks we did see a few more regional banks have trouble. I'm still taking my trades with caution because I don't believe this banking crisis is over. It has been very quiet but I do believe we will see more banks having trouble later this year. We do have major economic reports coming this week that I do believe will have a major impact on the market this week. On Monday we have the Consumer Credit report. On Tuesday we get US trade balance, US wholesale inventories, and two Fed officials giving speeches. On Wednesday there are no reports scheduled. On Thursday we get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with the Core CPI . On Friday we get the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA above the 20 SMA about fifty-seven trading days ago. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in an uptrend. The cross we got along with the price action is very bullish. RSI is currently below 30 and if we get a positive open I’ll be looking to buy call options.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross below the 20 SMA about one trading day ago. RSI is currently below 30, and I’m going to see if it can get back above and I’ll consider buying call options.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in a bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. See my top three below: GOOG, MU, and AMZN.

Note: In the future I’ll be posting setups with a high probability for profit with price patterns. I’ll add an ebook and video to show I analyze these trades. For now I’ll keep giving the BBMS picks until it is complete.

GOOG - (Bullish) Google had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA fifteen trading days ago. RSI is below 50 and I’m considering buying call options.

MU (Bullish) Micron has strong momentum to the upside from its breakout this past week. The 5 SMA crossed the 20 SMA about thirteen trading days ago. RSI dropped below 50 and moved up slightly. I'll be considering call options if it opens positive.

AMZN (Bullish) Amazon is showing bullish sentiment with the 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA one trading day ago. RSI is currently above 50 and I’m looking to buy call options if it drops back below.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price stayed around $29k and traded flat this week like it has been the prior three weeks. I still believe that we are seeing the gains of Bitcoin made by these institutions pouring into a few of the altcoins. I’m still anticipating MKR, AAVE, and COMP will be listed in the future on the new exchange because these are like the blue chip DEFI coins. As I stated previously I'm looking to buy the pullbacks on Bitcoin to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA. Currently Bitcoin is sitting slightly below its 20 SMA. While it is possible it could pull back to its 50 SMA I believe the price can go to levels we have never seen before. The block halving for Bitcoin is one year away and adding to a position now you will be early in the trend. As I have stated in the previous weeks less supply will be mined in the markets once the halving occurs. Combined with inflation we could see a Bitcoin price that could 20x off of its bottom price of $15,500. It seems impossible but we are talking $310k Bitcoin price. Here in the not so distant future I’ll show you how I leverage trade Bitcoin but for now just keep dollar cost averaging.

Litecoin Price Movement - Upcoming Halving

In my newsletter dated May 22 I wrote about the upcoming Litecoin Halving and how the price bottomed at $55 this cycle. This cycle played out way differently than the previous two halving’s. My prediction of a 5x off the low did not come to fruition. Now that we have had the halving less supply will be mined into the market. I still expect Litecoin to 5x off of the low of $55 but it looks like it will come in the next crypto bull run. Litecoin’s halving happened on August 2nd this past week. Each week I discussed Bitcoin’s halving but actually have explained what happens during a halving. The miners block rewards are reduced to half causing the current supply to come in circulation slower. With this new demand with institutional money coming in and less supply on the market price will move up.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week PayPal (PYPL) went back below our (MOS) price of $72.44 this week due to Wall Street not in favor of their earnings. PayPal did beat on EPS and Revenue but just like the last report they did not like their operating margin. It closed at $62.75 which is well below our MOS on Friday. There was some small news that came out before earnings but it did not reflect in the price but I believe it will pay off in the future. PayPal increased its business with Microsoft by adding their pay later and Venmo options across their business. With this latest earning sell off I do believe institutions will begin buying more because of their strong balance sheet. If they can fix the operating margin issue before the year is over I do believe we will get back above our MOS price. I've been stating in the previous newsletters I would write an article on how I get these numbers. The article is Buying Stocks with a Margin of Safety. Give it a read when you get a moment.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor

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