Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 5-22-2023

Thank you for being a reader of the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll be giving you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis for a eleventh straight week. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on it fundamentals for the eleventh time as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is still showing bullish sentiment based on the simple moving averages (SMA) and technical analysis. The regional banking crisis that I've been talking about for weeks is still playing out in the background and we don't know what to expect next. We saw the market very bullish this week breaking above resistance. I'm still taking my trades with caution because I don't believe this banking crisis is over. We do have major economic reports coming this week but I don't think will have a major impact on the market. What I do believe will have a major impact on the market is that four out of the five days next week their will be someone speaking from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday we have New Home Sales report. On Wednesday we have the FOMC meeting minutes and on Thursday we have a second reading of the GDP along with Pending Homes Sales report. Finally on Friday we get the Personal income and spending reports along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA above the 20 SMA about six trading days ago. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in a uptrend. The cross we got along with the price action is very bullish. If the RSI drops below to 50 or below I'll be looking to buy call options.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA about fourteen trading days ago. QQQ could pullback this week from all the bullish sentiment from last week. If the RIS can drop back to 50 or below I'll be buying call options.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. See my top two below: AMD, GOOG, and ADBE.

AMD - (Bullish) AMD had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA about nine trading days ago. RSI is currently above 70. I'll be waiting for the RSI to drop back to 50 or below to consider call options.

GOOG (Bullish) GOOG has strong momentum to the upside. The 5 SMA crossed the 20 SMA about nine trading days ago. I will be watching and waiting on a drop to 50 or below before I enter call options.

ADBE (Bullish) Adobe is showing bullish sentiment with the 5 SMA near crossing the 20 SMA. If we get a pullback after the cross I'll consider buying call options.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin showing price support a little below $27k and the 100 SMA looks like it is holding. This past week we have seen Bitcoin trading in a tight range. As I stated previously I'm looking to buy the pullbacks to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA but getting a pullback to the 100 SMA is a solid place to buy. If we can get Bitcoin to close back above the 20 SMA I believe we are headed back up. The block halving for Bitcoin is one year away and adding to a position now you will be early in the trend. As I have stated in the previous weeks less supply will be on mined in the markets once the halving occurs. Combined with inflation we could see a Bitcoin price that could 20x off of its bottom price of $15,500. It seems impossible but we are talking $310k Bitcoin price. Just keep dollar cost averaging.

Litecoin Halving

Before I speak about Paypal I'd like to speak on the upcoming halving of Litecoin (LTC). The last LTC halving we saw price action run up in anticipation and sell off with 43 days left. The price low of that cycle was $22 and the price high was about $125 roughly. That comes out to be about a 5.6x return. The current cycle low is $55 and if we go with a 5.6x we are looking at a price high of $312. Buying now could get you a 3x if it plays out the same way. The halving is 77 days away which is a good time to look into what your possibilities are. Please do your own research before putting any capital on the line.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week PayPal (PYPL) dropped further below our (MOS) price of $72.44 this week. After reporting earnings the week before last, Wall Street institutions didn't like what they heard even though PayPal raised their guidance. It closed at $60.92 which is well below our MOS on Friday. Now that earnings is out of the way we can dollar cost average as normal at lower prices. Do not let this sell off scare you because over time institutions will buy it up. Last week I saw that Bridgewater Capital, Ray Dalio's firm added more shares of PYPL during this sell off. See the article here. I'm still drafting my article on how I get these numbers for my upcoming blog which I will have done soon. As I stated in the previous weeks you can read the book Rule #1 by Phil Town to get a understanding of these numbers.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor

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