Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 9-25-2023

Thank you for being a reader of the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll be giving you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis once again. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on its fundamentals as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is still showing bullish sentiment based on the simple moving averages (SMA) and technical analysis. Several months ago the SPY got above 20% off of its bear market lows officially putting it in a bull market. As of now I’m still not a bull but more like a cautious bull. Taking a look at the 15 minute, 30, minute, and hourly chart of the SPY, they all seem to be going down. SPY closed this week below is its 50 SMA. The head and shoulder top I mentioned a few weeks ago it back in play on SPY. If the neckline breaks the market could be headed for a correction. The regional banking crisis that I've been talking about for the past few months is still playing out in the background and we still don't know what to expect next. I’m hearing a few more banks are in trouble and with rates going up it doesn’t help them at all. This bearish pattern on the S&P along with the banking crisis playing out in the background could make fear in the market worse. The outcome of the Fed meeting was to pause and not hike rates. Inflation has been going back up and the Fed is sticking to their guns on getting inflation back down to 2%. Also with inflation moving back up we could see another interest rate hike. I'm still taking my trades with caution because I don't believe this banking crisis is over. It has been very quiet but I do believe we will see more banks having trouble later this year. We do have major economic reports coming this week that I believe will not have a major impact on the market this week. On Monday no reports are scheduled. On Tuesday we get New Home Sales, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. On Wednesday we get the Durable Goods reports. On Thursday we the GDP Revision along with Fed Chair Powell speaking. Finally on Friday we Personal income and spending reports, PCE and Core PCE index, Retail and Wholesale inventories, and Consumer Sentiment.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA below the 20 SMA about three days ago. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in an uptrend, however we do have a head and shoulder top reversal playing out along with our bearish cross. The cross we got along with the price action is bearish. RSI is currently below 30 and if we can get a retrace back to near 50 I’m looking to buy put options.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross below the 20 SMA about three trading days ago. RSI is currently below 30, and I’m going to see if we can get a retrace back to the 50 and I’ll consider buying put options. Head and shoulders top reversals is playing out on QQQ as well.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in a bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. See my top three below: AMZN, ADBE, and CRM.

Note: In the future I’ll be posting setups with a high probability for profit with price patterns. I’ll add an ebook and video to show I analyze these trades. For now I’ll keep giving the BBMS picks until it is complete.

AMZN - (Bearish) Amazon had the 5 SMA cross below the 20 SMA two trading days ago. RSI is slightly below 30 and I’m considering buying put options if it can retrace back near 50.

GOOG (Bearish) Google looks like a trend change is happening. The 5 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA two trading days ago. RSI is below 30 and if it can retrace back to near 50. I'll be considering put options.

CRM (Bearish) Salesforce had its 5 SMA crossing below the 20 SMA three trading days ago. RSI is currently below 30 and I’m looking to put options if we get a retrace back to near 50.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price stayed around $26k this week with not much happening. While I do believe the Bitcoin bear market is over I’m still anticipating MKR, AAVE, and COMP will be listed in the future on the new exchange because these are like the blue chip DEFI coins. As I stated previously I'm looking to buy the pullbacks on Bitcoin to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA. Currently Bitcoin is dropped below its 200 SMA making for a good opportunity to add. The block halving for Bitcoin is less than one year away and adding to a position now you will be early in the trend. As I have stated in the previous weeks less supply will be mined in the markets once the halving occurs. Combined with inflation we could see a Bitcoin price that could 20x off of its bottom price of $15,500. It seems impossible but we are talking $310k Bitcoin price. Here in the not so distant future I’ll show you how I leverage trade Bitcoin but for now just keep dollar cost averaging.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week PayPal (PYPL) stayed below our (MOS) price of $72.44 this week due to Wall Street not in favor of their earnings from a month ago. With this latest earning sell off I do believe institutions will begin buying more because of their strong balance sheet. If they can fix the operating margin issue before the year is over I do believe we will get back above our MOS price. I've been stating in the previous newsletters I would write an article on how I get these numbers. The article is Buying Stocks with a Margin of Safety. Give it a read when you get a moment.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor