Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 8-28-2023

Thank you for being a reader of the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll be giving you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis once again. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on its fundamentals as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is still showing bullish sentiment based on the simple moving averages (SMA) and technical analysis. Several months ago the SPY got above 20% off of its bear market lows officially putting it in a bull market. As of now I’m still not a bull but more like a cautious bull. Taking a look at the 15 minute, 30, minute, and hourly chart of the SPY, they all seem to be in a downtrend. If SPY can’t get back above is 50 SMA on the daily chart we might be in for another correction. On the daily chart of the SPY we have head and shoulders top reversal forming. If the price breaks below $433.01 then the pattern is confirmed an we could have further downside. I’ve included a chart below where I drew out the neckline of the pattern for you to see. The regional banking crisis that I've been talking about for the past few months is still playing out in the background and we still don't know what to expect next. I’m hearing a few more banks are in trouble and with rates going up it doesn’t help them at all. I'm still taking my trades with caution because I don't believe this banking crisis is over. It has been very quiet but I do believe we will see more banks having trouble later this year. We do have major economic reports coming this week that I do believe will have a major impact on the market this week. On Monday nothing is scheduled. On Tuesday we S&P Case Shiller Home price index, Job Opening report, and Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday the ADP Unemployment report, GDP revision, and Pending Home Sales. On Thursday we Person income and spending along with PCE and Core PCE. Finally on Friday we get the US Unemployment report.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA below the 20 SMA about fifteen trading days ago. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in an uptrend. However this is our first cross below in a long while. The cross we got along with the price action is slightly bearish. RSI is currently near 50 and if we can get it back to 50 I’m looking to but put options.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross below the 20 SMA about sixteen trading days ago. RSI is currently near 50, and I’m going to see if it can get back to 50 and I’ll consider buying put options.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in a bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. See my top three below: AAPL, AMD, and MSFT.

Note: In the future I’ll be posting setups with a high probability for profit with price patterns. I’ll add an ebook and video to show I analyze these trades. For now I’ll keep giving the BBMS picks until it is complete.

AAPL - (Bearish) Apple had the 5 SMA cross below the 20 SMA seventeen trading days ago. RSI is above 50 and I’m considering buying put options expecting another drop.

AMD (Bearish) AMD has strong momentum to the downside. The 5 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA about eleven trading days ago. RSI dropped below 30 and if it can get back to 50. I'll be considering put options.

MSFT (Bullish) Microsoft has its 5 SMA crossing below the 20 SMA eighteen trading days ago. RSI is currently below at 50 and I’m looking to buy put options expecting a drop.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price this week stayed around $26k from the previous sell off. W. While I do believe the Bitcoin bear market is over I’m still anticipating MKR, AAVE, and COMP will be listed in the future on the new exchange because these are like the blue chip DEFI coins. As I stated previously I'm looking to buy the pullbacks on Bitcoin to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA. Currently Bitcoin is dropped below its 200 SMA making for a good opportunity to add. The block halving for Bitcoin is one year away and adding to a position now you will be early in the trend. As I have stated in the previous weeks less supply will be mined in the markets once the halving occurs. Combined with inflation we could see a Bitcoin price that could 20x off of its bottom price of $15,500. It seems impossible but we are talking $310k Bitcoin price. Here in the not so distant future I’ll show you how I leverage trade Bitcoin but for now just keep dollar cost averaging.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week PayPal (PYPL) stayed below our (MOS) price of $72.44 this week due to Wall Street not in favor of their earnings the previous week. There was some small news that came out after earnings a few weeks ago but it did not reflect in the price but I believe it will pay off in the future. PayPal has created a stable coin on their platform so user can use it in the crypto markets. With this latest earning sell off I do believe institutions will begin buying more because of their strong balance sheet. If they can fix the operating margin issue before the year is over I do believe we will get back above our MOS price. I've been stating in the previous newsletters I would write an article on how I get these numbers. The article is Buying Stocks with a Margin of Safety. Give it a read when you get a moment.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor