Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 6-26-2023

Thank you for being a reader of the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll be giving you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis once again. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on it fundamentals as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is still showing bullish sentiment based on the simple moving averages (SMA) and technical analysis. A few weeks ago the SPY got above 20% off of its bear market lows officially putting it in a bull market. As of now I’m still not a bull but more like a cautious bull. The regional banking crisis that I've been talking about for the past few months is still playing out in the background and we still don't know what to expect next. I'm still taking my trades with caution because I don't believe this banking crisis is over. Which it has been very quiet but I do believe we will see more banks having trouble later this year. We do have major economic reports coming this week that I don’t believe could have a major impact on the market. On Tuesday we have the Cash Shiller Home Price Index report, New Home Sales report, and Consumer Confidence. On Wednesday have Fed Chair Powell speaking in the morning along with retail and wholesale inventories reports. On Thursday we get the Pending home sales report, US and Fed Chair Powell speaks later in the afternoon. Finally on Friday we get Personal Income and Person Spending reports, PCE and Core PCE Index report, and Consumer Sentiment report.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA above the 20 SMA about twenty-seven trading days ago. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in a uptrend. The cross we got along with the price action is very bullish. RSI is currently below 50 and I’m looking to buy call options near the 20 SMA.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA about thirty-eight trading days ago. If the RSI can drop back to 50 or below again I'll be buying call options.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. See my top three below: AAPL, NVDA, and ADBE.

Note: In the future I’ll be posting setups with a high probability for profit with price patterns. I’ll add a ebook and video to show I analyze these trades. For now I’ll keep giving the BBMS picks until it is complete.

AAPL - (Bullish) Apple had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA about seventy trading days ago. RSI is above 70 and seems to be dropping . If it drops to 50 or below I'll be considering call options.

NVDA (Bullish) Nvida has strong momentum to the upside. The 5 SMA crossed the 20 SMA about thirty-seven trading days ago. If RSI drops to 50 or below I'll be considering call options.

ADBE (Bullish) Adobe is showing bullish sentiment with the 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA twenty-three trading days ago. RSI is currently above 68 and if it drops to 50 or below I’ll be looking to buy call options.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a big move this week taking price back above $30k. This is in response of the news that Blackrock had filed for a spot ETF with the SEC and Charles Schwab and Citadel announcing they will be creating a exchange where you can purchase Bitcoin and a few altcoin with your brokerage account. This is big news because now more liquidity can come into Bitcoin with an exchange that allows access to 401k and IRA funds. As I stated previously I'm looking to buy the pullbacks to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA but on this news I was glad I bought pullbacks to the 100 SMA. I believe price can go to levels we have never seen before. The block halving for Bitcoin is one year away and adding to a position now you will be early in the trend. As I have stated in the previous weeks less supply will be on mined in the markets once the halving occurs. Combined with inflation we could see a Bitcoin price that could 20x off of its bottom price of $15,500. It seems impossible but we are talking $310k Bitcoin price. Here in the not so distant future I’ll show you how I leverage trade Bitcoin but for now jus t keep dollar cost averaging.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week PayPal (PYPL) continued to trade further below our (MOS) price of $72.44 this week. It closed at $66.94 which is well below our MOS on Friday. From the looks of price action this stock look like its in the early stages of accumulation after the last earnings capitulation. As I mentioned last week that Bridgewater Capital, Ray Dalio's firm added more shares of PYPL during this sell off taking some of the supply off the market. This current week we saw price get back to its 50 day SMA and break above it. If price can hold and get back to its price at last earnings we should see a recovery and profit at the end of the year. I'm still drafting my article on how I get these numbers for my upcoming blog which I will have done soon. As I stated in the previous weeks you can read the book Rule #1 by Phil Town to get a understanding of these numbers.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor

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