Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 3-27-2023

Thank you for being subscribed to the Bull Bear Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll give you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll give a Bitcoin Analysis for the third week in a row. Finally I'll discuss PayPal as the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on it fundamentals for the third time as well.

S&P 500 - SPY is showing slightly bullish sentiment with the 50 day simple moving average (SMA) still being above the 200 day. As we saw price closed back above the 200 putting the technical analysis back in bullish territory. However we still have a the regional banking crisis playing out in the background along with rumors that the commercial real estate industry could be next with trouble. We saw the market this week ignore the banking crisis playing out in the background and charge higher. Which is why I taking my trades with caution. We don't have any market moving economic reports this week but I will be paying attention to the Case Shiller home price index and the U.S. Consumer Confidence reports on Tuesday. With no major reports the market could continue off of last weeks momentum.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY we get a cross of the 5 SMA above the 20 SMA on Friday's close. As stated in the rules 5 SMA crossing the 20 SMA is our first warning sign. Notice how the 5 SMA, 20 SMA, and price are above the 200 SMA. Probabilities say that price will continue in a uptrend. It is possible the 5 period RSI goes above 70 and stays above for a few days. What I'll be looking for is the first pullback with the 5 period RSI below 50 to buy call options.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ had the 5 SMA cross above the 20 SMA about 7 days ago. Just like the SPY I'll be looking for a pullback with the 5 period RSI to drop below 50 to look for call options.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in bullish or bearish trend we look for stocks following either trend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. My top three are below: AMD, AAPL, and GOOG.

AMD - (Bullish) It's possible RSI could drop to 50 or below. Look for a call options if we get a pullback. Make sure your call option has 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days in time.

AAPL - (Bullish) has a lot of momentum to the upside. The 5 SMA has crossed and stayed above the 20 SMA for 12 days now. Wait for a pullback with the RSI getting back to 50 or below. Pick the call option with 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days out in time.

GOOG - (Bullish) wait until RSI comes back to or below 50. The 5 SMA has crossed above 20 SMA and stayed there for 7 days. Pick the call option with 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days in time.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

From my last post Bitcoin has seemed to find price support around $27k. Looking at the moving averages from a technical standpoint Bitcoin has turned back bullish. As I stated last week I'm looking to buy the pullbacks to the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA. The block halving for Bitcoin in next year in 2024. Keep in mind when I stated that $15,500 was the bottom and I'm still estimating a 10x off that until I take profits.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

This week $PYPL came back into my margin of safety price of $72.44. It even fell below. Nothing has changed for me here. I'm still buying in by dollar cost averaging. I have my article in draft on how I get these numbers for my upcoming blog. I have them in a google sheet that and I will share the functions in the article. As I stated last week you can read the book Rule #1 by Phil Town.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor