Bull Bear Investor Newsletter 3-20-2023

Thank you for being subscribed to the Bull Bear Investor Newsletter. This is where I put together an analysis on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. This week I'll give you SPY and QQQ suggestions along with three stocks. Also this week I'll follow up on my Bitcoin analysis from last week in reaction of the banks going down. Finally I'll follow up on the stock I'm dollar cost averaging into based on it's fundamentals from last week.

S&P 500 - SPY is showing slightly bearish sentiment however, the 50 day simple moving average (SMA) is still above the 200 day. Will it stay above for much longer? I don't know but the price closed above the 200 day at Friday's close. I'm still bearish on the overall market based on what is going in the banking sector. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 6% which is still historically high but it came in line with expectation. The banking sector is in real trouble and it could cause all markets to reverse back in a downtrend. We just haven't seen it yet. Also this week we have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. They are expected to either pause on hiking rates or raise by 25 basis points. So be aware in your trading that the market can change on any bad news.

Putting the Bull Bear Momentum System parameters over the SPY the 5 SMA is still below the 20 SMA. However our 20 SMA is still above the 200 and it is very uncertain what will happen with the outcome of the FOMC meeting. If price stays below the 20 SMA after the FOMC meeting I expect the SPY to continue in a downtrend. As of now I don't have any trades planned for SPY.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 - QQQ has become bullish with the golden cross I mentioned last week and now we have the 5 SMA crossing above the 20 SMA and both price and the moving averages are above the 200 day moving average. We could rally up more then pull back. That is where I will be looking for call options when the 5 period RSI drops below 50. The outcome of the FMOC meeting could change the direction so I'm going to be looking with caution.

Bull Bear Momentum System (BBMS) Trades

When markets are in bearish we look for stocks in a downtrend and we adjust our charts with the BBMS parameters. Sometimes a short term uptrend can occur so we wait until we get a bearish cross of the 5 SMA below the 20 SMA. My top three are below: AAPL, AMD, and GOOG.

AAPL - (Bullish) It's possible RSI could get back to 50 or below. Look for a call options if we get a pullback after the outcome of the FMOC meeting. Make sure you have 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days in time on the option you select.

AMD - (Bullish) has a lot of momentum to the upside. The 5 SMA has crossed and stayed above the 20 SMA for nine days. Wait for a pullback with the RSI getting at or below 50. Pick the option with 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days out in time.

GOOG - (Bullish) The 5 SMA crossed the 20 SMA about six days ago. This week if the RSI can drop at or below look for call options with 80% intrinsic value with 7-14 days in time.

If you haven't read the book The Bull Bear Momentum System please take the time to do so and watch the videos for better understanding. The link is at the bottom of the email.

Bitcoin

From my last post Bitcoin has went up vertical. Looking at the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages it appears that it has tuned back bullish. As I stated last week buy the pullback at or around the 20 day moving average. Sometimes there will be pullbacks to the 50 day moving average. I'll be looking to add here as well. The block halving for Bitcoin in next year in 2024. As I also stated last week I believe $15,500 was the bottom and I'm still estimating a 10x off that until I take profits.

Fundamental Analysis Stock Pick

I'll be looking to add to my $PYPL position because it's still around my margin of safety price of $72.44. I explained last week what I like to look for when analyzing fundamentals. In the near future I plan to do an article on my upcoming blog on how I get these numbers. I use the same calculations from the book Rule #1 by Phil Town. As more companies I have been analyzing hit their margin of safety prices I'll share them in this newsletter. For now $PYPL is the only stock I'm buying for the long term.

Thank you for reading

Brian - The Bull Bear Investor